Europa Conference League · resolved market
HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d63a4bc93b0490f205c3a867f0c5cb1e3876da4031fca4dc6b98844857fdc04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 5c | 4,344$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Over | 17c | 3,018$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 79c | 1,584$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.82 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 12c | 1,007$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.23 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 1,001$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.13 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 748.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.36 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1582…e47ebacked Over | 41c | 709.32$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 80c | 535.69$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Under | 5c | 530.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Under | 5c | 528.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 4c | 329.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 59c | 285.78$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Under | 5c | 241.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…292abacked Under | 7c | 191.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 16c | 179.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Over | 68c | 179.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 18c | 167.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 21c | 165.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 157.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 100.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 80c | 99.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 24c | 74.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 40c | 74.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 52c | 66.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 40c | 49.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 59c | 49.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 59c | 48.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 79c | 36.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 36c | 30.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…64fdbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 3.5this page
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: FK Žalgiris Vilnius O/U 0.5Under won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: HNK Hajduk Split O/U 2.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 0.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 1.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 2.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 4.5Under won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: O/U 5.5Under won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius: Team to AdvanceHNK Hajduk Split won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)HNK Hajduk Split won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-2.5)HNK Hajduk Split won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.