Serie A · resolved market
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d755159fed28dfd6fad3f3fe24eb24858dd5e1a9336f8adfc09becc21298755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 67c | 7,490$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.72 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 5,465$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.66 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 793.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 19c | 792.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 23c | 670.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 17c | 540.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 257.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 18c | 226.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Over | 29c | 225.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 16c | 205.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Over | 11c | 185.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 19c | 161.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 154.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 25c | 142.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 139.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 29c | 131.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79fc…d0fbbacked Under | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 34c | 127.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 16c | 102.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…c581backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 16c | 86.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 68.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 67.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Under | 70c | 57.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 71c | 38.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d11…17fdbacked Under | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.