Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: David Goffin vs Marin Cilic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d82cddebeee1a7a0113f76c0e8cc5abd6b2309ed68325f768362975cbfd900b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cilicof Goffin, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Cilic | 72c | 7,700$5,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Goffin | 28c | 4,966$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Cilic | 77c | 3,292$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.3 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Goffin | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Goffin | 22c | 1,436$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.51 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Goffin | 26c | 1,368$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.87 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Goffin | 31c | 1,320$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.57 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Cilic | 67c | 761.19$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Goffin | 29c | 613.52$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Goffin | 32c | 576.25$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Goffin | 29c | 540.48$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Cilic | 68c | 539.93$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Cilic | 64c | 508.44$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Cilic | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Goffin | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cilic | 74c | 469.48$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Goffin | 40c | 413.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Goffin | 34c | 325.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Cilic | 66c | 325.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Goffin | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Goffin | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Goffin | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Cilic | 66c | 187.19$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Goffin | 33c | 176.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cilic | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Cilic | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Goffin | 49c | 115.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Goffin | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Goffin | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Goffin | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Goffin | 34c | 66.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Cilic | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Cilic | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Goffin | 36c | 32.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Cilic | 66c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Goffin | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Cilic | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Cilic | 71c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.