NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d83cd80da7fe58a8b1f23e6f444ffaa84c56ecbf2ce9a53c060b453d7fa4b70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Avangard Omsk, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Avangard Omsk | 53c | 668.35$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.12 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 47c | 510.64$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 446.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Avangard Omsk | 56c | 329.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 317.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 46c | 264.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Avangard Omsk | 55c | 221.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Avangard Omsk | 62c | 115.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Avangard Omsk | 55c | 81.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Avangard Omsk | 54c | 69.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Avangard Omsk | 54c | 67.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Avangard Omsk | 54c | 65.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2514backed Avangard Omsk | 54c | 61.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Avangard Omsk | 55c | 40.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Avangard Omsk | 72c | 39.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Avangard Omsk | 68c | 39.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Avangard Omsk | 66c | 27.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Avangard Omsk | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Avangard Omsk | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…2e1abacked Avangard Omsk | 55c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.