Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d97fe8494c4f8dac9878f68119dcd45cd2efc08ebf53e5ef3338d4dd25e82fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Pigeons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,394 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked M80 | 80c | 7,362$5,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.82 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Pigeons | 20c | 5,783$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.63 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pigeons | 22c | 962.14$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed M80 | 69c | 957.99$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.2 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pigeons | 20c | 886.59$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.27 | 415 | 37.1%154 W · 261 L | -26.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Pigeons | 19c | 446$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Pigeons | 34c | 293.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 463 | 26.6%123 W · 340 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Pigeons | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Pigeons | 19c | 222.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pigeons | 33c | 217$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pigeons | 21c | 210.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Pigeons | 13c | 198.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pigeons | 14c | 156.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Pigeons | 16c | 152.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Pigeons | 19c | 126$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed M80 | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed M80 | 75c | 122$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Pigeons | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Pigeons | 30c | 97.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pigeons | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Pigeons | 19c | 76.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked M80 | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pigeons | 20c | 72.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pigeons | 25c | 72.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pigeons | 30c | 68.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed M80 | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked M80 | 60c | 67.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed M80 | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked M80 | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pigeons | 27c | 63.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked M80 | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed M80 | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ab3dbacked M80 | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…af86backed Pigeons | 37c | 33.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed M80 | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked M80 | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed M80 | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked M80 | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…9436backed M80 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagethis page
- Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs Pigeons (+1.5)Pigeons won
- Valorant: M80 vs Pigeons - Map 1 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Pigeons - Map 2 WinnerPigeons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.