Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1daf5702fa057b68f797a23352aab11258b6083ce16524d97c4094053a020fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 632.3$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 11c | 502.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 12c | 431.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 16c | 397.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 392.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 317$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 13c | 311.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 68c | 295.22$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 20c | 264.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 206.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 201.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 8c | 193.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 15c | 192.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 106.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 70c | 102$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 15c | 97.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 88.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 24c | 88.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 84.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 22c | 80.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 78.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 16c | 77.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 72.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…0978backed Yes | 74c | 67.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 61.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 79c | 60.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 59.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed Yes | 19c | 59.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 34c | 56.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 54.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 37c | 53.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 63c | 37.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 34.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 34.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 33.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 67c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 29.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 42c | 28.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 62c | 27.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 21.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 51c | 21.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.