Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships: Tien vs. Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db3a4050719a1adc54a0eb696870ae6a7199172f7e2cfd30271e28b9ee84f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutet of Tien, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x460f…9eb7backed Tien | 54c | 6,055$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Moutet | 51c | 5,968$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.79 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Moutet | 50c | 2,957$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.25 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Moutet | 45c | 2,273$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Tien | 50c | 2,076$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.47 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Moutet | 46c | 1,815$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.93 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Tien | 57c | 1,757$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Tien | 34c | 1,391$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Tien | 49c | 1,316$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.37 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Moutet | 55c | 862.97$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.89 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…4ebfbacked Tien | 49c | 824.91$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Moutet | 49c | 652.69$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.87 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Moutet | 60c | 599.48$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Moutet | 45c | 400$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.53 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Moutet | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Tien | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Tien | 31c | 323$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Moutet | 44c | 268.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Moutet | 44c | 222.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tien | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…2248backed Tien | 49c | 166.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Moutet | 73c | 165$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Moutet | 56c | 161$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Tien | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd197…9991backed Moutet | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Moutet | 75c | 108.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…fc8ebacked Tien | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tien | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Tien | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Tien | 60c | 88.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Tien | 49c | 86.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tien | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Moutet | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…6008backed Tien | 56c | 63.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Moutet | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Moutet | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…5155backed Tien | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Tien | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…b398backed Tien | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked Moutet | 50c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.