TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,972 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes15c460.26$68 inLost-$6816945%76 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes13c305.9$38 inLost-$38.428831.8%28 W · 60 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes21c225.53$46 inLost-$46.281,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes20c214.5$42 inLost-$42.187410.8%8 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes19c196$37 inLost-$37.326240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee8…b108backed Yes19c143.99$28 inLost-$27.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c143$114 inWon+$29.1630955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes20c130.18$26 inLost-$25.543658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c126.91$23 inLost-$23.4451845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c108.21$22 inLost-$22.4837830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes23c100$23 inLost-$2331743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb51a…67aabacked Yes14c86.77$12 inLost-$11.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes16c83.93$13 inLost-$13.4331242.9%134 W · 178 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb9…0754backed Yes21c80$17 inLost-$16.89636.5%35 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19c2…6e6ebacked Yes17c72.59$12 inLost-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes19c68$13 inLost-$12.927550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c52.99$42 inWon+$11.0818949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes22c51.83$11 inLost-$11.269924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No80c40.05$32 inWon+$8.0110756.1%60 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c39$31 inWon+$8.0921857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No79c25.03$20 inWon+$5.173053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No76c20$15 inWon+$4.814314.7%21 W · 122 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No76c14$11 inWon+$3.36988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick62cpaid+51.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c13.07$10 inWon+$2.7411643.1%50 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.