Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbf337fb14e24928f566026ad18bc4fde286a9085089db029a83bac0873d9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 1,329$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.7 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Yes | 6c | 1,153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 30c | 967.56$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.88 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 7c | 944.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 673.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 549.78$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.11 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 4c | 478.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 73c | 450$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 394.73$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 394.72$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 258.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 224.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 27c | 210.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 189$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 74c | 179.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 164.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f6a4backed Yes | 27c | 123.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 27c | 118.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 109.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 97.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…34efbacked Yes | 11c | 91.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 89.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 28c | 70.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 75c | 66.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 73c | 63.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 61.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 76c | 59.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 73c | 56.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 67c | 51.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 62c | 50.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 74c | 28.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 74c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-21?this page
- Will Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.