South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2026-01-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc77c972bb93ac7a0fe623cccd7da7da7e4893bdac129691f61d6ec9d942e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.8 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 4,372$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.56 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Yes | 48c | 2,794$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 47c | 2,452$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.52 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,191$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.79 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…2bd1backed Yes | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 804.33$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.87 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 46c | 699.08$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.6 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 461.12$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 40c | 287.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 34c | 167.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed No | 64c | 154.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 39c | 113.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 48c | 96.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 26c | 70.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 36c | 57.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…a150backed Yes | 49c | 46.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…604cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 57c | 44.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…637abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-01-22?this page
- Will CA Platense win on 2026-01-22?No won
- Will CA Unión vs. CA Platense end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.