NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd5c440aa8105f87f773089b796dcb2c3f400ed3ad747a942d168000fa33f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 48c | 117,193$56,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,174.86 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 52c | 103,152$53,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,408.13 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 32,569$15,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,307.63 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 53c | 15,978$8,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,509.66 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 9,843$5,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.33 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Under | 53c | 4,238$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a5…419dbacked Under | 53c | 4,198$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 3,019$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.79 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 1,130$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.79 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 773.58$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.58 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 624.99$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 404.34$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 53c | 400$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 399.87$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 55c | 256.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 186.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 23c | 120.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 113.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 103.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 53c | 103.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 52c | 83.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 52c | 59.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 31c | 58.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…01aebacked Over | 48c | 52.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Under | 53c | 50.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…2494backed Under | 54c | 45.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 37c | 42.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4015…c724backed Over | 48c | 31.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…95c1backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Over | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. SabresSabres won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.