NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21935c2f4b672df85700a1b8c108a280b398b33844d43fb9c083092cacf92d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Sabres, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sabres | 35c | 7,531$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.6 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 2,280$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 2,222$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.7 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights | 65c | 2,102$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.91 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 36c | 2,026$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.77 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Golden Knights | 65c | 1,254$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.88 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights | 65c | 1,002$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.52 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Sabres | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights | 64c | 355.47$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sabres | 56c | 261.2$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Golden Knights | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Golden Knights | 65c | 239.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 58c | 209.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Golden Knights | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Sabres | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Golden Knights | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Golden Knights | 64c | 186.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 46c | 183.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Golden Knights | 68c | 176.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Golden Knights | 49c | 139.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sabres | 33c | 124.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Golden Knights | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Golden Knights | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Sabres | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Sabres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Sabres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sabres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Golden Knights | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Golden Knights | 67c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 70c | 78.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Sabres | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Sabres | 51c | 56.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Golden Knights | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Sabres | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Sabres | 51c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Sabres | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Golden Knights | 65c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden Knights | 53c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Golden Knights | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Golden Knights | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. SabresSabres won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.