NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46cc246a89bc6458194eafa72856b0a2746ffedf5f98b5d2d96e74dfe6084d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 43c | 3,486$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.83 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 57c | 2,477$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.89 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,024$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 57c | 922$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.54 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 43c | 379$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.03 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 75c | 343$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.45 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 27c | 334.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.14 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 59c | 277.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 273$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 48c | 265.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 45c | 263.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 57c | 206$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 204.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 59c | 170.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 141.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 59c | 127.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 43c | 126.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 105$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Over | 59c | 101.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 50c | 73.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 59c | 67.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 59.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 46.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 53c | 46.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 59c | 41.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Over | 53c | 35.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…74b3backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Over | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 28.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…1781backed Over | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 61c | 27.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. SabresSabres won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.