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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,760 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes20c499.65$99 inLost-$99.0353548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes27c452.57$120 inLost-$120.091,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No74c419.66$310 inWon+$109.951,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No80c400$320 inWon+$8014455.6%80 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No73c181.57$133 inWon+$48.3567925.8%175 W · 504 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c179.1$45 inLost-$45.173,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes37c175.95$65 inLost-$64.6462044%273 W · 347 L+25.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes32c151.72$49 inLost-$48.5920851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c135.76$22 inLost-$22.0410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c129$94 inWon+$34.835,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes24c115.42$28 inLost-$27.9735648.6%173 W · 183 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes16c111$18 inLost-$18.0263733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes33c100$33 inLost-$3310640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes45c100$45 inLost-$44.5892329.1%269 W · 654 L+0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost-$2445630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c97.58$26 inLost-$25.619,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes14c85.82$12 inLost-$12.0146736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes18c80$14 inLost-$148321.7%18 W · 65 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes33c70$23 inLost-$2337434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes29c68.91$20 inLost-$20.195,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes47c64.51$30 inLost-$308641.9%36 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No75c48.8$37 inWon+$12.131,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No78c45.03$35 inWon+$9.952,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No75c41.48$31 inWon+$10.332,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0d…0885backed Yes39c41.38$16 inLost-$165334%18 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+82.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6444…d1cfbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No68c33.65$23 inWon+$10.882,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c4…db23backed No53c32.87$17 inWon+$15.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c31.99$21 inWon+$10.885,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No80c30.01$24 inWon+$6.142,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No62c27.1$17 inWon+$10.312,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c26.57$19 inWon+$7.45,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa387…3d3cbacked No80c23.65$19 inWon+$4.732842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No68c23.36$16 inWon+$7.382,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No68c20$14 inWon+$6.47261.1%44 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No66c17.8$12 inWon+$6.0552347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No72c15.95$12 inWon+$4.42,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c14.29$10 inWon+$3.972,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.