Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d9d700ce3419f76fc303021feaaec4281acb0ab33ed72ab94b73ac6a4807e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 48c | 594.65$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.49 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 582.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.23 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 433.64$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.68 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 23c | 396.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.91 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 25c | 299.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 53c | 293.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 249.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 23c | 183.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 151.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 73c | 150.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 148.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 61c | 125.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 65c | 112.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 107$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 27c | 101.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 30c | 96.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 88.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 84.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 79.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 44c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 70c | 73.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 168 | 68.5%115 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 71.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 66.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 58.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 61c | 56.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 24c | 55.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 71c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 43.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 42.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 42.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 27c | 40.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 39.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 75c | 33.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 29.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 25.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 24.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 22.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 22.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 21.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 77c | 18.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.