CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df6615ea660e1db059395719eec7c8402fd125bfd3e90246d64e3f6743df517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- megoshortof ASTRAL, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2924…0f31backed megoshort | 57c | 2,264$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.71 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed ASTRAL | 48c | 1,497$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.22 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked megoshort | 61c | 1,115$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.61 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 54c | 1,049$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.44 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 62c | 807.18$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed ASTRAL | 2c | 705.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked megoshort | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed ASTRAL | 42c | 592.93$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.78 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed megoshort | 65c | 585.51$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.64 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ASTRAL | 41c | 469.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.67 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ASTRAL | 55c | 383.09$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.38 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ASTRAL | 25c | 354.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked megoshort | 56c | 314$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ASTRAL | 38c | 312.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked megoshort | 43c | 271.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked megoshort | 47c | 269.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked megoshort | 65c | 268.03$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…5308backed ASTRAL | 53c | 224$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed ASTRAL | 47c | 213.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed megoshort | 72c | 133.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked ASTRAL | 53c | 125.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked ASTRAL | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed ASTRAL | 49c | 111.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked megoshort | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed megoshort | 52c | 100.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed ASTRAL | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked megoshort | 72c | 66.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked ASTRAL | 65c | 61.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked megoshort | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed megoshort | 53c | 52.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed ASTRAL | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked megoshort | 62c | 45.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked ASTRAL | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed ASTRAL | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ASTRAL | 68c | 39.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed megoshort | 59c | 38.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked ASTRAL | 57c | 35.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed megoshort | 42c | 31.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed ASTRAL | 54c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerASTRAL won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.