CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd610858a0349716259169efe55481182b663b357b540a875e713cd54eb3a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x668d…e471backed megoshort | 35c | 2,808$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed megoshort | 41c | 1,696$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.4 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked megoshort | 24c | 1,265$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.07 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 62c | 1,142$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.19 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ASTRAL | 55c | 1,088$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.52 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ASTRAL | 71c | 970.97$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.23 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked megoshort | 38c | 900$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ASTRAL | 58c | 898.78$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.43 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 34c | 844.39$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed megoshort | 29c | 608.93$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked megoshort | 35c | 556.01$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed megoshort | 31c | 473.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 1,305 | 26.4%345 W · 960 L | -89.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed megoshort | 28c | 457.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked megoshort | 43c | 412.37$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked megoshort | 27c | 411.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ASTRAL | 64c | 372.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed megoshort | 42c | 337.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed ASTRAL | 58c | 331.43$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed ASTRAL | 70c | 296.85$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed megoshort | 12c | 210.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed megoshort | 29c | 193.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed megoshort | 42c | 187.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…1e76backed ASTRAL | 65c | 164.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed megoshort | 28c | 114.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked ASTRAL | 70c | 112.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked megoshort | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked megoshort | 40c | 109.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL | 66c | 107.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed megoshort | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed megoshort | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed megoshort | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed megoshort | 33c | 72.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked megoshort | 39c | 63.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed megoshort | 26c | 62.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked megoshort | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed ASTRAL | 73c | 53.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked ASTRAL | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked megoshort | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed megoshort | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked ASTRAL | 76c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked ASTRAL | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed ASTRAL | 66c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked ASTRAL | 55c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked ASTRAL | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked ASTRAL | 59c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnermegoshort won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.