Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0aed2b8ef8f0017fafa4c0304e8034a4cdf21e3cb0f7452ea5cfec264c2536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 62c | 657.45$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 181.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 132.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 40c | 129.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 127.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 122.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 112.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 54c | 112$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 59c | 107.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 64c | 106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 63c | 103.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 42c | 100.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…5d47backed Yes | 59c | 90.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 87.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 81.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 51c | 78.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 74.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 68.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 35c | 68.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 62c | 61.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 51.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 52c | 49.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 43c | 49.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 48.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 39c | 48.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 31c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 41c | 41.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 39.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked No | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 28.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 43c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 49c | 22.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…0ddebacked Yes | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 60c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 19.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.