Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd198489dbea53ffb12bfaeb0b5f50214df1d3dd9e5846372b514b9a9a3edd3d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 33c | 550.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.04 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 24c | 438.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 326.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 277.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 270.01$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 221.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 60c | 200.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 166.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 64c | 154.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 154.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 64c | 144.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 143.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 49c | 139.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 40c | 134.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 120.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…92bcbacked Yes | 37c | 117$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 22c | 113.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 111.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 104.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 102.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 43c | 99.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 91.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 89.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 22c | 89.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 88.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 87.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 87.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 43c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 54c | 74.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 73.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 25c | 62.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 56.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 24c | 54.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 50.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 31c | 41.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…1997backed Yes | 33c | 41.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 41.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 39.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…481dbacked Yes | 36c | 35.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 28.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 65c | 25.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 77c | 22.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 15.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 73c | 14.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.