Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3162fec4937c3210408604990eec329ac36de66fc431152fac12a49b663e0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 63c | 584.17$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.39 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 46c | 368.08$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 185 | 33%61 W · 124 L | -18.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 341.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 71c | 279.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 205.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 150.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 67c | 145.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 73c | 96.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 93.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 70c | 90.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 82.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 58.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 70c | 57.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 489 | 32.7%160 W · 329 L | +22.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 65c | 53.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 423 | 53%224 W · 199 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 48.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 45.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 45.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…1b2fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 39.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 48c | 29.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 75c | 28.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed Yes | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 67c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 67c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 73c | 18.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 66c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.