Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3f9e5e97ec5e90434c687820705b5db56c17d8f7125f7cf0ef342e90cd4e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 991.79$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 4c | 606.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 546.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 508.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 27c | 407.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 398.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 379.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 337.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 320.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 249.44$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 10c | 247.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 234.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 6c | 232.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 34c | 182.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed No | 76c | 178.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 15c | 169.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 79c | 164.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 76c | 128.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 80c | 125.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 28c | 121.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 75c | 119.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 29c | 115.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 18c | 102.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 80c | 98.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 92.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 91.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 21c | 88.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 23c | 86.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 29c | 85.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 22c | 85.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 72c | 80.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 21c | 73.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 28c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 27c | 57.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…9975backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…237abacked Yes | 28c | 44.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…b0fabacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50a…72fbbacked Yes | 31c | 40.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…55a5backed No | 75c | 39.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 78c | 39.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 71c | 37.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 73c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa82…ea2dbacked No | 75c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 27.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…65a2backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…c7b4backed No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 75c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…13babacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 75c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…4f55backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 79c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.