Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe370fc70269ac0ddf27ae3e4ad1bc7015f59df245c105e26a2a663adb5f9d164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 1,494$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 17c | 693.21$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 77c | 625.41$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 49c | 581.2$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.39 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 17c | 552.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 546.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 537.15$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 497.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 38c | 478.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 432.49$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 18c | 426.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 4c | 420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 386.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes | 19c | 386.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 360.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 5c | 355.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 14c | 338$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 20c | 335.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 317.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 18c | 312.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 308.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 13c | 305$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 15c | 299.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 297.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 19c | 287.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 37c | 266.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 265.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 262.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 17c | 256.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…f314backed Yes | 6c | 247.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 239.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 40c | 231.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 17c | 226.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 31c | 220.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 217.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 15c | 205.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 39c | 205.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 22c | 203.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 202.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 16c | 201.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 194.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 41c | 191.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 65c | 185.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 34c | 177.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 165.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 146.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 49c | 144.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 17c | 139.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 58c | 136.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 128.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 12c | 119.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 19c | 117.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 48c | 113.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d76…4801backed Yes | 15c | 104.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 13c | 104.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 98.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 14c | 97.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 97.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…4819backed Yes | 15c | 96.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 95.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 17c | 92.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked Yes | 16c | 92.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 17c | 91.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 86.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 21c | 84.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 18c | 82.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…1c51backed Yes | 71c | 80.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 57c | 80.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 22c | 78.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 59c | 77.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 17c | 73.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 58c | 69.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 20c | 68.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…276ebacked Yes | 20c | 66.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 57c | 63.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50a…72fbbacked Yes | 57c | 63.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed No | 46c | 63.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2acabacked Yes | 16c | 62.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf0…3f44backed Yes | 17c | 60.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 36c | 60.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 39c | 59.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 64c | 57.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 56c | 57.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 75c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.