Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8fec4e82b30cf3717431cab3f559e62db6956b5daaf54a377899f9732e12ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 80c | 1,823$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.94 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 566.95$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 25c | 499.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.74 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 52c | 402.62$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 391.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 372.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes | 54c | 365.36$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 78c | 354.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 44c | 347.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.43 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 76c | 342.76$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 322.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 52c | 214.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed Yes | 45c | 210.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 46c | 209.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 191.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 61c | 188.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 45c | 187.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 69c | 185.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.91 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 56c | 169.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 49c | 167.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 27c | 146$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 67c | 145.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…7b31backed Yes | 66c | 138.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 64c | 134.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 67c | 129.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 46c | 121.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…5dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 112.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 13c | 108.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 105.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 101.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 98.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 97.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 59c | 95.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 48c | 95.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 84.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 49c | 82.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 56c | 81.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 33c | 81.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 46c | 78.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 75.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 27c | 73.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 66c | 71.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 70.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 65.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 40c | 64.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked No | 27c | 60.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 74c | 58.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 42c | 56.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 59c | 55.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 55.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed Yes | 56c | 52.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 46c | 52.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 51.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 34c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 51.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 47c | 50.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed No | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 54c | 48.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 57c | 47.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 54c | 47.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 46.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 31c | 46.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 44.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 43.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 42.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 54c | 39.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 47c | 37.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 51c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 37.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 60c | 34.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 42c | 33.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…da7cbacked No | 58c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 65c | 32.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked Yes | 46c | 30.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 37c | 30.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 60c | 30.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 46c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Yes | 42c | 28.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 56c | 28.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.