Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e46887fb7573796914992d42cb35a78976f31fbc6161729b7861b4bee01a8b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 16c | 509.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.16 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 447$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 267.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 210.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 158.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 121.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 119.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 118.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 21c | 97.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 30c | 88.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 24c | 84.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 74.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 70c | 68.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 66.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 63.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 63.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 63.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 24c | 57.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 54.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 23c | 54.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 29c | 51.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 49.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 47.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 46.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 45.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…c431backed No | 79c | 41.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 50c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 76c | 36.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 27.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 74c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.