Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197659a24bc577dd023f0d8eeb0ff2c3ebb6fe686d575b66abfc5041acfedd57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed Yes | 1c | 3,745$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,060$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 224.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 220.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 22c | 179.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 179.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 63c | 171.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 153.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 69c | 145.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 40c | 135.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 129.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 49c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 122.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 122$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 47c | 116.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 115.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 114.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 40c | 100.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 91.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 85.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 49c | 81.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 75.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 73.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 65.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 65c | 61.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 60.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 60.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 59.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 57.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 42c | 55.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 33c | 46.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 46.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 56c | 43.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 49c | 43.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 40.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…ac74backed No | 64c | 35.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 35.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 35.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 52c | 34.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 52c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 80c | 32.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 49c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 30.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 28.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 28.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 28.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 52c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked No | 64c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 25.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 24.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 48c | 24.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 65c | 21.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 19.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.