TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x451a…3b01backed Yes1c3,745$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7217858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes3c1,060$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c224.07$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.027,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes55c220.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.072,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No22c179.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9172125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No13c179.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7365625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No63c171.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c153.37$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.432,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes69c145.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.475764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed No65c140$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes40c135.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.527029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes40c129.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No49c129$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2811169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c122.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No27c122$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.184,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No47c116.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6614646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c115.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1917947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c114.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes40c100.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c99.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes46c97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.561,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes22c91.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c85.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.287,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No49c81.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.741,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No14c75.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.614,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No32c73.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3649543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes69c71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8661365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c65.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.746,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No65c61.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5313274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No49c60.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.781,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c60.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.341,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c59.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.323,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked No31c58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.841,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No63c57.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.361760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…3289backed Yes42c55.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.492927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c46.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8759…4fe3backed Yes33c46.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No52c46.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.451,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…010bbacked No56c43.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No49c43.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0242820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes49c40.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c40.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.212,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No49c39.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3943663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…ac74backed No64c35.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No75c35.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No49c35.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.173,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes43c35.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes51c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.733962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c34.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2180050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No52c34.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3357264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No52c33.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No80c32.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes49c32.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes39c30.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…6505backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+105.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c29.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.521,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c29.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.722,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.152,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes47c28.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.659262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No65c28.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No65c28.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c28.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0a…5315backed Yes52c27.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.293345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7406…162bbacked No64c25.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331450%7 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes49c25.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.452,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes41c24.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes48c24.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5928441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c23.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes50c22.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No48c21.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No65c21.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.619769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No51c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No60c20.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.032,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c19.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.086,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No60c17.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No65c15.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes67c15.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.