TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,720 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7313…49d2backed Yes3c3,116$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f7…10d3backed No66c709.58$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c357.06$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad2…3887backed No76c262.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.361172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No40c252.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6165625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.231,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes29c192.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes44c173.65$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6425362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes28c171.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes31c170.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.252,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No78c136.78$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.251,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes28c136.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No68c136.01$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes78c134.33$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c127.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes36c118$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9613531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes33c117.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.82,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No74c111.56$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5492678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No29c110$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes15c107.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No50c104.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.817979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…6505backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+105.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c98.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.575,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes25c98.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes13c97.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6367633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes28c96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5610053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes27c93.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.213,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes31c91.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.471850%9 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+80.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No65c89.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes21c83.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.933,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.935,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes28c78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No49c77.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes15c74.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0437…30f4backed Yes54c73.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes29c68.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes25c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.451,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes30c64.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2842151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c60.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.411,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.413738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.418046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes74c59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.94734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes25c51.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.946657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes72c51.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.723951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No56c51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.651,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x262f…2198backed No75c50.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.461580%12 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1715529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.696955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes23c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c42…bad9backed No76c48.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.511090%9 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8033…0d2abacked No77c46.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d98…2467backed No79c46.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No69c46.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes59c46.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.181,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c43.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c41.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed Yes25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.393441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb7…0141backed No75c38.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.463100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.628134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes39c37.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.759262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Yes57c37.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c35.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.833,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.992,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes58c34.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No53c33.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.782,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes37c29.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.867634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe292…f8b9backed No75c29.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No53c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.722,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes66c27.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1219461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…0669backed Yes64c24.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes75c24.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No68c22.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2250261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c20.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.791,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No79c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0310973.4%80 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No77c14.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa294…e25fbacked No80c13.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.68580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.