TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Botafogo FRof Cruzeiro EC, Botafogo FR
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Botafogo FR79c2,795$2,216 inWon+$578.528,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Cruzeiro EC21c2,328$491 inLost-$491.32,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Cruzeiro EC1c1,326$18 inLost-$18.052,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…18f1backed Cruzeiro EC22c909.09$200 inLost-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Botafogo FR70c241.12$169 inWon+$72.3434747.6%165 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2390…a15fbacked Botafogo FR71c195.77$139 inWon+$56.772281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Cruzeiro EC30c138.79$42 inLost-$41.6412443.5%54 W · 70 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Botafogo FR73c134.72$99 inWon+$35.7395155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cruzeiro EC30c121$36 inLost-$36.349136.3%178 W · 313 L-2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Botafogo FR72c119.34$86 inWon+$32.949158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cruzeiro EC25c104.75$26 inLost-$261,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Botafogo FR71c59.77$42 inWon+$17.3340451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Botafogo FR75c36.23$27 inWon+$9.0669453.5%371 W · 323 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Botafogo FR80c25$20 inWon+$52748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ff2…1c10backed Botafogo FR71c22$16 inWon+$6.382948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ff…4e38backed Botafogo FR70c21$15 inWon+$6.35100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Botafogo FR77c17.6$13 inWon+$4.1111861.9%73 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Botafogo FR77c13.34$10 inWon+$3.0719164.4%123 W · 68 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Botafogo FR80c12.52$10 inWon+$2.56078.3%47 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick80cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.