South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8edcc448c5f54ba5a14dbd19cc0e641b2dcc335019e8ae02d459ac9d3b0bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 79c | 8,330$6,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,568.74 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 4,955$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 4,402$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.26 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 52c | 2,408$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 2,380$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.2 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,373$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.21 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 2,183$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.51 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 2,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 1,957$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.23 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Over | 33c | 1,440$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 1,401$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.67 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 39c | 1,331$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 6c | 1,306$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 31c | 1,297$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.23 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 62c | 943.82$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Over | 24c | 559.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 42c | 489.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 78c | 468.99$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.73 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 79c | 309$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 79c | 244$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 77c | 204.89$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 22c | 181.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 50c | 170.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 155.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…7f8bbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 22c | 132.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 22c | 124$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 41c | 118.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 21c | 99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed Over | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed Over | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 62c | 73.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…2852backed Under | 73c | 64.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 21c | 59.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 71c | 45.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 68c | 45.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 77c | 44.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 36c | 33.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under | 76c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…079ebacked Over | 70c | 18.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.