South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc28778a9ca53ab04a76b9fb4e58c9664c4eb107da295c1da10e5e2b34d457b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 1,394$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 47c | 438.34$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.13 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Yes | 36c | 330$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 21c | 315.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 53c | 292.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 128.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 116.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 44c | 116.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Yes | 15c | 111.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 43c | 98.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…2000backed Yes | 55c | 97.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 47c | 93.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 50c | 83.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b12dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 63c | 58.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 57c | 52.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 53c | 48.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc735…b72abacked Yes | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 54c | 24.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…825cbacked Yes | 57c | 20.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…3733backed Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.