South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e85747335b176e6ce30b52dfcd06407e0ba63a0a33e69227dbc945e3a61ffe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb809…2004backed Under | 46c | 10,484$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…9105backed Over | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 3,084$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.43 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 2,853$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,337$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.45 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 57c | 2,033$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.77 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,885$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.98 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 58c | 1,387$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 63c | 1,171$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.33 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 1,101$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.64 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 55c | 999.99$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.1 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 27c | 599.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 33c | 576.3$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 304.91$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 50c | 275.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 57c | 212.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 210.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 169.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…6087backed Over | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 55c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 73c | 136.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 46c | 135.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 46c | 110.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 44c | 110.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 52c | 107.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 41c | 104.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked Under | 47c | 102.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 47c | 102.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 43c | 101.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Under | 76c | 84.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 49c | 77.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 53c | 75.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 26c | 62.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 53c | 62.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…e5f5backed Over | 51c | 50.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 46c | 47.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Under | 47c | 39.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +51%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 52c | 37.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…c6f9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa4…2d5cbacked Over | 54c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 49c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Under | 70c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…7a4ebacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 61c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 67c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.