Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7ffa4ce789e6e1ae25269a65503f3b6f82144158ef6fb973b7ecc53771d0ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim RedForceof G2 Esports, Nongshim RedForce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe52c…01f4backed G2 Esports | 33c | 1,500$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.93 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nongshim RedForce | 67c | 1,146$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.12 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Nongshim RedForce | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…20bdbacked G2 Esports | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed G2 Esports | 30c | 71.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -11.5wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…9248backed Nongshim RedForce | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed G2 Esports | 28c | 64.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nongshim RedForce | 72c | 49.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nongshim RedForce | 63c | 43.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Nongshim RedForce | 67c | 35.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Nongshim RedForce | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 184 | 65.2%120 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Nongshim RedForce | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…dcfdbacked Nongshim RedForce | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nongshim RedForce | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group CNongshim RedForce won
- Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 2 WinnerNongshim RedForce won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.