TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Nongshim RedForce, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Nongshim RedForce47c25,389$11,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,914.5224145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked G2 Esports60c18,358$10,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,434.8226650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked G2 Esports51c5,877$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.339340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nongshim RedForce36c4,211$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.9340945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Nongshim RedForce50c4,156$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.8534356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked G2 Esports53c3,921$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.6112155.4%67 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed G2 Esports55c3,296$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.0110566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Esports52c2,592$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.531,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked G2 Esports65c2,525$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.8594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked G2 Esports56c2,371$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.8978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed Nongshim RedForce39c2,182$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8514156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked G2 Esports58c2,108$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.6168949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports59c2,013$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.4181134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed G2 Esports50c1,857$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9315058%29 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bf7…9907backed Nongshim RedForce43c1,447$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.883928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Nongshim RedForce50c1,276$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.271560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed G2 Esports64c1,272$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.771566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked G2 Esports64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed G2 Esports66c960$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.254247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed G2 Esports47c925.36$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6960022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Nongshim RedForce54c903.9$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.2454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Nongshim RedForce49c899.99$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4387252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nongshim RedForce38c868.26$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed G2 Esports51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39253442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked G2 Esports50c782.1$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.051637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc934…215fbacked G2 Esports80c775.65$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7361…2a8dbacked G2 Esports76c769.48$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Nongshim RedForce30c746.52$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7922539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Nongshim RedForce27c636.11$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3840944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked G2 Esports49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.244845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Nongshim RedForce46c572.78$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2657050%35 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked G2 Esports55c560$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25213741.6%57 W · 80 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Nongshim RedForce50c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed G2 Esports65c549$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4714750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed Nongshim RedForce37c520$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.41936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Nongshim RedForce60c507.67$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Nongshim RedForce46c506.52$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2336755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Nongshim RedForce48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce41c454.03$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.571,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Nongshim RedForce55c426.89$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.534253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Nongshim RedForce52c402$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9818460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Nongshim RedForce41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16454439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked Nongshim RedForce50c399.68$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.75660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Nongshim RedForce50c385.26$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.633450%17 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed G2 Esports55c375.92$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Nongshim RedForce4c350$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410628.3%30 W · 76 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Nongshim RedForce47c330.71$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.926048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed G2 Esports53c318.29$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.614941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b3…5bd5backed Nongshim RedForce34c317.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed G2 Esports64c311.61$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.256346%29 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d1…a9f7backed G2 Esports43c307.9$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.982832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Nongshim RedForce41c305.59$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0414850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Nongshim RedForce50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Esports50c282$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.071,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed G2 Esports71c279.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed G2 Esports51c256.76$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.816028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed G2 Esports51c253.29$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1114938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked G2 Esports52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Nongshim RedForce49c246.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked G2 Esports61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.92955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Nongshim RedForce42c236.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.543537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Nongshim RedForce53c235.66$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9111445.6%52 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed G2 Esports34c221.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3119648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nongshim RedForce38c218.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.41,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…aa7cbacked G2 Esports51c216.37$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.021553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked G2 Esports72c215.55$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.59151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed G2 Esports37c214.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…e8cabacked Nongshim RedForce67c209.35$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf380…17bbbacked G2 Esports49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Nongshim RedForce38c203.35$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.879540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Nongshim RedForce53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Nongshim RedForce55c199.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.943852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9b…df54backed G2 Esports51c197.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.026041.7%25 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Nongshim RedForce64c186.59$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205238.5%20 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Nongshim RedForce41c177.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1414737.4%55 W · 92 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed G2 Esports57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked G2 Esports53c171.04$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.043638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Nongshim RedForce47c167.7$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.736347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Nongshim RedForce50c161.34$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.679142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed G2 Esports65c154.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1410548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Nongshim RedForce48c146.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1536145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Nongshim RedForce23c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56232.3%20 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Nongshim RedForce34c125.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6411450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked Nongshim RedForce70c120.22$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8417642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed G2 Esports58c114.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7737545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed G2 Esports73c113$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9599846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed Nongshim RedForce46c112.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked G2 Esports56c107.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2113043.8%57 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Nongshim RedForce43c104.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.076747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked G2 Esports49c102.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.525360.4%32 W · 21 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked G2 Esports37c100.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.243171%22 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea69…0a9bbacked Nongshim RedForce53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a41…20bdbacked G2 Esports52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1512250%61 W · 61 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nongshim RedForce44c92.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.261,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed G2 Esports54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.593253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Nongshim RedForce36c91.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.255520%11 W · 44 L-11.5wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed G2 Esports50c91.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked G2 Esports45c88.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6251948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Nongshim RedForce48c82.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5827847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked G2 Esports51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.27944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.