TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Nongshim RedForce, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Nongshim RedForce45c22,375$10,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,307.7424145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked G2 Esports54c15,145$8,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,157.9226650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked G2 Esports54c4,673$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.7294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked G2 Esports58c4,113$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,372.4778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports54c2,549$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.6981134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nongshim RedForce34c2,413$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.491,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked G2 Esports58c2,041$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.9816347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Esports56c2,039$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.831,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nongshim RedForce43c1,895$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.4768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked G2 Esports50c1,575$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.041,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Nongshim RedForce41c1,565$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.8750944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce45c1,407$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.181,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed G2 Esports55c1,319$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.684247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Nongshim RedForce44c1,301$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.2414938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed G2 Esports53c1,277$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6807050%35 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked G2 Esports56c1,113$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed Nongshim RedForce45c1,107$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.994156.1%23 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked G2 Esports55c999.97$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.492552%13 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Nongshim RedForce44c901.13$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.1314552.4%76 W · 69 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked G2 Esports55c870$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.521055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed G2 Esports42c740$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3513743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked G2 Esports53c728$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.943432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc35b…8dddbacked G2 Esports61c702.53$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4291827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nongshim RedForce36c702.53$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.1188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked G2 Esports55c700$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3853661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Nongshim RedForce26c699.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.9910842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed G2 Esports62c671.49$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.830147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed G2 Esports44c664.17$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8540944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Nongshim RedForce45c608.04$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.426755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked G2 Esports51c580.79$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7361…2a8dbacked Nongshim RedForce47c570.56$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Nongshim RedForce53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0419648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Nongshim RedForce45c531.5$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.336048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed G2 Esports52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26018049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Nongshim RedForce45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.134751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Nongshim RedForce42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2907252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Nongshim RedForce48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26063955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G2 Esports55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Nongshim RedForce44c499.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.996346%29 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Nongshim RedForce45c499.98$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4962156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Nongshim RedForce56c499.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9922449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed G2 Esports55c499.97$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4921457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Nongshim RedForce46c477.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed G2 Esports54c467.16$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.86028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Esports41c463.63$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.11,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed G2 Esports43c444.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.058158%47 W · 34 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfba4…4fcfbacked G2 Esports56c402.65$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Nongshim RedForce45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22054439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked G2 Esports46c382.1$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1522539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked G2 Esports35c374.85$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0410628.3%30 W · 76 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed G2 Esports38c356.4$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6623836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed G2 Esports57c346.28$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.382653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31d1…a9f7backed Nongshim RedForce44c340$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.42832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb911…d6d0backed G2 Esports65c331.93$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.913056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed G2 Esports56c328.15$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b38…a4c4backed G2 Esports38c324.15$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.421553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9bb…6538backed G2 Esports56c310.84$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Nongshim RedForce45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Nongshim RedForce46c290$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.617349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Nongshim RedForce47c275.7$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.199540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed G2 Esports45c271.11$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.719439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Nongshim RedForce46c260.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1325843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb02…c292backed G2 Esports55c260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1433571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdef4…96dfbacked G2 Esports55c256.63$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…aa7cbacked Nongshim RedForce46c252.17$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.171553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed G2 Esports53c250$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.593148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb065…60ccbacked Nongshim RedForce46c249$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked G2 Esports55c240.02$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0130652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb379…0d76backed Nongshim RedForce24c236.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.523132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b3…5bd5backed Nongshim RedForce47c232.25$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed G2 Esports51c225.3$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.621,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Nongshim RedForce56c214.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.295238.5%20 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Nongshim RedForce47c212$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3614750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked Nongshim RedForce42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1166448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Nongshim RedForce33c199.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8633838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9b…df54backed G2 Esports56c196.43$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106041.7%25 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed G2 Esports57c187.79$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9110655.7%59 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked G2 Esports50c176$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3496245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked G2 Esports48c166.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1384838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Esports56c164.45$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked G2 Esports36c155$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2190733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Nongshim RedForce55c153$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1999846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…1068backed G2 Esports79c152.64$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206572.3%47 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Nongshim RedForce46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1736145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed G2 Esports73c149.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4922455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked G2 Esports79c149$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4620138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Nongshim RedForce35c141.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.323644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nongshim RedForce51c140.09$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1240945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked G2 Esports44c122.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.371361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…4b6fbacked G2 Esports74c122.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.387265.3%47 W · 25 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d47…5646backed G2 Esports55c118.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf943…b1b1backed G2 Esports31c106.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked G2 Esports53c106.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1713043.8%57 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed G2 Esports55c104.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4828541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf380…17bbbacked G2 Esports55c101.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Nongshim RedForce52c94.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2310548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked G2 Esports51c89.44$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.722638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Nongshim RedForce46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9614443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nongshim RedForce41c85.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6755637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b5…ecffbacked G2 Esports55c83.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.818357.8%48 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.