MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e82b18d20d83c0fe10706b56f3ba97894da2a1e2faf2442118d911d84bc85c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 13,181$7,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.81 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 6,763$3,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,213.26 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 2,323$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 1,315$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.35 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 58c | 974.8$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.38 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 897.77$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 724.35$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.47 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 43c | 561.88$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.44 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 515.15$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 58c | 504.21$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.44 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 48c | 332.12$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 327.02$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 231.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 58c | 184.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 52c | 174.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed Under | 55c | 173.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 169.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 43c | 168.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 147.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 146.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 141.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 39c | 130.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 50c | 124.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 120.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 48c | 117.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 42c | 114.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 44c | 110.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 56c | 109.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 83.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 67.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 57.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 37c | 50.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 50.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 46.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 40.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 43c | 33.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 55c | 32.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 32.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 43c | 28.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 43c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Under | 55c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 42c | 25.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.