MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f8ffc8ee2a5972e07f6b1d663d79b106080f103aaed7f2b497b8209fa7328a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 1,880$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.67 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,638$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 299.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 284.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 272.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 265.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 9c | 224.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 209.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 171.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 159.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 151.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 130.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 128.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 125.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 112.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 101.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 94.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 57.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 54.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 50.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 49.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 44.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 36.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 33.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 29.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 24.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.