MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8aa43727e765f922429cd8992f0ecd7353bf5c522f7871281f1f26b20f8856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 15,000$8,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,562.28 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 6,039$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.63 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 5,118$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.88 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 3,814$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 249.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 154.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 149.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 113.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 99.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 51.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.