World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8ac39d875166b71c20606ec79fc09884523f60212fa072aed08ce8dd6b10ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 36c | 310.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 211.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 117.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 110.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 102.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 81.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 57.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 51.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 49.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 47.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 48c | 46.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 39.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 54c | 32.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 21.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.