NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Stars: O/U 6.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb190f3144d20a679fd3e36a91e047cbd9fb87f322e4e11cac29fe284ca9004

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,350 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	45c	14,200$6,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,336.85	286	52.4%150 W · 136 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	55c	7,917$4,354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,562.66	895	47%421 W · 474 L	-18.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under	55c	7,722$4,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,475.1	225	50.2%113 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	56c	5,500$3,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,420	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	55c	5,318$2,943 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,374.86	881	51.2%451 W · 430 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	45c	3,333$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.85	225	46.2%104 W · 121 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over	44c	1,500$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	360	38.6%139 W · 221 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over	44c	1,214$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534	141	48.9%69 W · 72 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	45c	939$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.55	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	45c	888$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.6	222	48.2%107 W · 115 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Under	54c	868.49$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.51	275	48.7%134 W · 141 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	44c	601.16$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.51	288	42%121 W · 167 L	-12.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	45c	535$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.94	376	49.7%187 W · 189 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	46c	437.25$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.14	484	52.3%253 W · 231 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	56c	427.16$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.95	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	45c	383.14$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.41	695	50.1%348 W · 347 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	45c	350$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	764	50.4%385 W · 379 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Over	4c	254$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	72	30.6%22 W · 50 L	+14.5wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+218.9%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Over	46c	228.26$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	481	61.3%295 W · 186 L	+21.3wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	54c	228.26$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	304	47.4%144 W · 160 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	45c	212$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.68	792	51.1%405 W · 387 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	45c	160$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	481	49.3%237 W · 244 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	45c	160$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	583	46.5%271 W · 312 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	45c	160$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	472	49.2%232 W · 240 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	45c	133$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	44c	107$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	45c	106$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	291	47.4%138 W · 153 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	45c	106$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	216	48.1%104 W · 112 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	45c	106$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	418	51.4%215 W · 203 L	+14.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	45c	106$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.34	605	49.3%298 W · 307 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	42c	102.41$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.01	1,143	50.8%581 W · 562 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…9871backed Under	58c	100.69$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.29	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	100.68$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.34	629	51.2%322 W · 307 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	45c	79$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	264	48.9%129 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	45c	79$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	45c	79$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	271	48.7%132 W · 139 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	44c	71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.59	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	44c	70$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.14	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-12.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	231	44.6%103 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	204	47.5%97 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	147	46.9%69 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	198	48.5%96 W · 102 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	189	46%87 W · 102 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	197	45.2%89 W · 108 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	190	46.8%89 W · 101 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	200	45.5%91 W · 109 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	45c	52$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	418	47.8%200 W · 218 L	+11.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	44c	44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0869…1f5ebacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over	45c	36.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	470	51.5%242 W · 228 L	+12.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	175	52%91 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	45c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over	45c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	219	51.6%113 W · 106 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9792…77abbacked Under	55c	32.73$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.73	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Under	57c	24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.32	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Penguins vs. Stars: O/U 6.5this page
Penguins vs. StarsStars won
Spread: Stars (-1.5)Penguins won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Penguins vs. Stars: O/U 6.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event