Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1edb2c7721c87baf36a7620fa95b8a7e30450df33bd2cf48da9171ca2cc537d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 75c | 2,400$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 1,858$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.63 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,272$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 64c | 860.06$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 24c | 799.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.99 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 26c | 494.96$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 449.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…15edbacked Under | 72c | 400.04$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Under | 29c | 174.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359e…9376backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 28c | 92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 59c | 88.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 27c | 86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 67c | 59.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 72c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed Over | 75c | 38.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 65c | 30.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Over | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.