Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea8ce00d14d48bd9c59d7735d6710cb695831019848c59692b731c177307801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Cremoneseof ACF Fiorentina, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed ACF Fiorentina | 17c | 2,780$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.58 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed US Cremonese | 69c | 720.21$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.47 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…7769backed US Cremonese | 78c | 435.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…1c7dbacked US Cremonese | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed ACF Fiorentina | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed ACF Fiorentina | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked ACF Fiorentina | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked US Cremonese | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed US Cremonese | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked US Cremonese | 73c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked US Cremonese | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed US Cremonese | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed US Cremonese | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed US Cremonese | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked US Cremonese | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed US Cremonese | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed US Cremonese | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed US Cremonese | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked US Cremonese | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed US Cremonese | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked US Cremonese | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked US Cremonese | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.