MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef15bbc8eee50713da9fbb5ce7638dac357ea6e44aa7f24b2df293b678ec49f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 891.26$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.46 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 438.64$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.23 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 380$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 5c | 315.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.82 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 222.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 217.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 211.16$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 131.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 131.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 122.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 111$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…fcb3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 102.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 31cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 68.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 889 | 52.8%469 W · 420 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 60.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 36.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…5e47backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 33.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 26.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.