TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,901 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under38c3,858$1,459 inLost-$1,458.611,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over63c1,990$1,254 inWon+$736.938,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over59c1,014$600 inWon+$414.193,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Over54c939.5$507 inWon+$432.1717648.9%86 W · 90 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under46c828$381 inLost-$380.881,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over66c637.38$422 inWon+$215.022,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dae…72febacked Over55c547.55$301 inWon+$246.44652.2%24 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under45c474.09$213 inLost-$213.3417442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15c…6122backed Under4c400.78$16 inLost-$16.416026.7%16 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over63c399$251 inWon+$147.631,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under47c301.04$141 inLost-$140.9947145.9%216 W · 255 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over65c150$97 inWon+$52.754,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over53c126$67 inWon+$59.2275350.6%381 W · 372 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under25c110$27 inLost-$26.9524349.4%120 W · 123 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Under35c100$35 inLost-$3531247.8%149 W · 163 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Under22c93.09$20 inLost-$20.4834233.9%116 W · 226 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under27c89.83$24 inLost-$24.341,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under47c85.11$40 inLost-$4074943.4%325 W · 424 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Over53c80.11$42 inWon+$37.6516345.4%74 W · 89 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under45c64.99$30 inLost-$29.5791848.5%445 W · 473 L+10.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over76c53$40 inWon+$12.898,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over53c52.92$28 inWon+$24.8768153.3%363 W · 318 L+30.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Over53c51.06$27 inWon+$2484342.9%362 W · 481 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ef…6d36backed Under45c44.44$20 inLost-$203040%12 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Under34c40$14 inLost-$13.611551.3%59 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Under28c35.78$10 inLost-$10.028038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e1b…aa71backed Over55c26$14 inWon+$11.712653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over66c19.5$13 inWon+$6.691,26758.5%741 W · 526 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.