MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d763b8c9d9ad28b5b018c484ece1e4d4a4bba3561d039283df533500c540b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 59c | 44,425$26,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,012.01 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 9,975$5,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,611.3 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 7,004$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,738.32 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 6,054$3,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.12 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…5a01backed Under | 17c | 5,454$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…339cbacked Under | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…fd69backed Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6570…5d38backed Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…2ee6backed Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 79c | 1,600$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.97 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…7eb9backed Under | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9fdbbacked Under | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 11c | 800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 615$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.95 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 6c | 517.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 21c | 486.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.39 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 62c | 399$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 364 | 51.4%187 W · 177 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 62c | 337.38$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.22 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 21c | 303.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.52 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 49c | 302.91$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Under | 65c | 301.36$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 192.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 65c | 160$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…27c8backed Under | 50c | 130.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 129.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…ed50backed Over | 52c | 125.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 113.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 35c | 102.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 312 | 47.8%149 W · 163 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 99.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 477 | 49.9%238 W · 239 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 551 | 51.2%282 W · 269 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 35c | 83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 56c | 33.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 291 | 56.7%165 W · 126 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.