Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on October 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f057b3b04698f313e5ced988bc8654eb22a89ecb14225e68758cfaf55d8b9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 37c | 3,386$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.4 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 2,167$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 1,794$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed No | 53c | 601.57$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 530$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 454.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked No | 25c | 398.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.17 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 10c | 327.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed No | 80c | 305$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 244.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…2d92backed Yes | 27c | 226$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 10c | 169$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 142.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 39c | 125.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 44c | 125.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 24c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 21c | 109.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 90.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 51c | 78.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 29c | 70.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e0…8755backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 72c | 45.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on October 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on October 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on October 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on October 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on October 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on October 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.