Movies · resolved market
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f37d22d950d94c2859241615f7ac0fc620d6f2bfb6f1d3c5e5918a3ca0524ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,625$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 20c | 2,630$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.86 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 33c | 1,909$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked No | 69c | 1,815$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 73c | 1,578$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,458$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 29c | 1,200$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 895.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 31c | 835.75$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 16c | 800$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 71c | 754$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.75 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 14c | 668.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 71c | 657.62$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 599.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed No | 67c | 541.13$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 5c | 500.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed Yes | 20c | 196.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed No | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 163$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed No | 69c | 146.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 98.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 67c | 97.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 68c | 92.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…0945backed No | 79c | 62.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 46.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf659…1cfbbacked No | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?this page
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-8m?Yes won
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8-11m?No won
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.