Movies · resolved market
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-8m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82e8a12298ba5bab18645a2b9a3c68a96c55dad8728b37e8cb2d5915d199d36f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 31c | 3,650$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.3 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 68c | 2,032$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.53 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 78c | 1,735$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.34 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 67c | 1,621$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.22 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 42c | 984.11$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.64 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 45c | 680.27$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.23 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 71c | 547.76$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 68c | 500$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 40c | 496.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 425.39$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.23 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 27c | 400$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.95 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 382.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 72c | 345.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 73c | 330.95$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 150.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 32c | 149.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 65c | 115.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 36c | 107.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 79.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 71c | 43.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…1a48backed Yes | 79c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…6b8bbacked Yes | 56c | 34.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d3…624fbacked No | 47c | 33.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e2…50c7backed No | 48c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…1945backed Yes | 56c | 24.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5-8m?this page
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8-11m?No won
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?No won
- Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.