MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f50fa76ad6d823e89ff1929b9eea6060eeda971d7930f4ecbb93667347fe9ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 6,882$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 6,153$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,124.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 1c | 1,230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…799cbacked Over | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 848.83$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 567.78$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 369.68$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 51c | 270.34$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 244.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 52c | 155.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 110.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 101.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 45c | 81.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 73.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 16c | 71.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 58.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 46c | 55.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4675…b0d5backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 51c | 22.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.