MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00b5f5f1ed7c8575c5aade3954901413aa0dc70394c0af4f82d01e5eafe3fe25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 1,672$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.08 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 76c | 1,612$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 769.42$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 704.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 601.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 490$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 356.6$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 303.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 275.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 226.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 209.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 168$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 144.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 119.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 115.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 12c | 111.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 70.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 68.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 65.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 64.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 61.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 60.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 60.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 50.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 49.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 49.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 42.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.