Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f58f8d98c082bbbdf8e35e7fe47814f320f1c28f478fb1939b1f2a9523dd93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Yes | 54c | 25,996$13,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,912.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 50c | 10,999$5,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,526.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 47c | 9,860$4,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 48c | 5,369$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.88 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed No | 49c | 5,267$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.14 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 4,654$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.4 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Yes | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 2,712$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.35 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 52c | 2,412$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.85 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 46c | 2,327$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.58 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 2,104$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.57 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 72c | 2,068$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.09 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 1c | 1,498$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 1,037$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.06 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 846.77$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.77 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…a18ebacked No | 53c | 829.47$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.2 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 51c | 753.85$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.38 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed No | 48c | 735.6$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 51c | 446$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 48c | 389$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 53c | 302.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 40c | 227$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 42c | 224$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 43c | 224$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 11c | 152.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked No | 78c | 149.83$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 51c | 145.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 39c | 136.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 19c | 100.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 16c | 99.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…c293backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 52c | 85.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 50c | 76.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 51c | 76.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 25c | 72.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…6000backed No | 48c | 66.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 48c | 55.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed No | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb6…76e9backed Yes | 53c | 35.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…a7f5backed Yes | 50c | 34.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked No | 58c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.