Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e209dab29567496bd36baf9fa11194bb6f74aeed0b18938241d79aa8be6cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 26c | 11,614$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.22 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Yes | 23c | 6,956$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,356.09 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 5,183$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.74 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 3,831$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.56 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 17c | 3,688$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.64 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 53c | 3,405$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.11 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…a18ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,307$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.29 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Yes | 11c | 999$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 22c | 959.62$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.41 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 53c | 908.04$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 16c | 555.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 30c | 529.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked No | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…7207backed Yes | 10c | 399.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 13cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 74c | 397.19$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked No | 77c | 297$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 8c | 262.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 247.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 20c | 244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 21c | 219.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 57c | 156$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 15c | 123.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…f730backed No | 52c | 123.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 23c | 106$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 24c | 99.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 39c | 83.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…4303backed Yes | 57c | 78.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 22c | 75.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 72c | 73.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked No | 76c | 72.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…61babacked Yes | 25c | 71.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 71.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 63.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 77c | 48.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Orlando City SC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.